Unmasking Coups: Unraveling the Dynamics, Causes, and Prevention of Political Overthrows
Dive into the labyrinth of political coups, their causes, implications, and preventive measures. Socioeconomic indicators and the pivotal lessons.
Unmasking Coups: Unraveling the Dynamics, Causes, and Prevention of Political Overthrows
Photo: A tank in downtown Harare during the coup in Zimbabwe, 2017. Credit: Tafadzwa Tarumbwa / Public Domain Photos
Understanding the Dynamics and Implications of the Recent Coup in Niger
Commentary based on the recent events in Niger.
The recent coup in Niger has sent shockwaves across the region, and its repercussions are reverberating both domestically and internationally. As one of the latest incidents in a series of political upheavals, this event highlights the fragility of governance and political stability in the Sahel region. To grasp the dynamics and implications of this coup, it is imperative that we delve into the root causes and underlying factors that have contributed to the recurrent political unrest in the country.
Niger, like many other countries in West Africa, faces a multitude of challenges that have created an environment conducive to political instability. The complex interplay of issues - such as weak governance, corruption, socioeconomic disparities and ethnic tensions - has eroded public trust in state institutions, leaving the population vulnerable to extremist ideologies and power struggles. Understanding the motivations and actions of the coup leaders, as well as the grievances of the citizens that supported them, is vital in developing effective strategies to prevent such upheavals in the future.
Photo source: BBC report on the coup in Niger.
Moreover, the implications of the coup extend far beyond Niger's borders. The Sahel region has been grappling with a growing jihadist insurgency, and political upheavals like this can further exacerbate the security situation. The international community must closely monitor the developments in Niger, and the response of neighboring countries and regional organizations so as to prevent the spillover of violence and instability. Additionally, as Niger has been a pivotal partner for Western powers in the fight against extremism and irregular migration, this coup may disrupt the cooperation necessary for effective counterterrorism efforts.
The recent coup in Niger serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of political systems in the Sahel and the need for comprehensive efforts to address the root causes of instability. Understanding the dynamics and implications of such coups is crucial for crafting targeted interventions that promote good governance, socioeconomic development and peacebuilding initiatives. Only by comprehending the complexities of these events can the international community work together to create lasting solutions and foster stability in the region.
Defining a Coup
When it comes to political instability, one of the most extreme expressions of such discord is the coup d'état, typically shortened to just "coup." But what exactly is a coup, and why do they occur? Understanding these sudden power seizures not only requires an exploration of their mechanics but also a deeper look at the socioeconomic factors that can contribute to their emergence.
A coup is a sudden and decisive action in politics, typically involving the violent or illegal overthrow of a government. These swift power seizures are usually carried out by a small group of people, often from the military or other security forces, who usurp the ruling government, nullify the country's existing legal and constitutional framework, and seize control of the nation.
Other Recent Examples of Coups
In recent years, the world has witnessed several notable coups. Five examples include:
Myanmar (2021): The military seized control following a general election that saw Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party win by a landslide. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party contested the results, leading to a coup.
Mali (2020): President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was forced to resign and dissolve parliament after mutinying soldiers detained him at gunpoint. This coup was driven by dissatisfaction with the government's handling of an ongoing militant insurgency and economic grievances.
Bolivia (2019): President Evo Morales was forced to resign after weeks of protests over a disputed presidential election, perceived by many as fraudulent. Morales's resignation was followed by the installation of an interim government, which critics describe as a coup.
Zimbabwe (2017): A coup ended the 37-year rule of Robert Mugabe, replacing him with his ousted deputy, Emmerson Mnangagwa. The military denied orchestrating a coup, framing it instead as a "bloodless correction."
Turkey (2016): An attempted coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was thwarted. The unsuccessful coup led to a purge of the military and civil service, further consolidating Erdogan's power.
Understanding Why Coups Occur
Coups typically occur in contexts of profound political, social and economic instability. Conditions such as weak institutions, corruption, economic distress, political repression, popular discontent and factionalism within the military or ruling party often serve as the backdrop for these sudden overthrows.
Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities: The Underlying Catalysts of Coups
Certain socioeconomic factors can make countries more susceptible to coups than others. These factors significantly contribute to the political landscape of a nation and can often serve as underlying catalysts for coups. When citizens struggle with poverty, face high unemployment rates, lack education or grapple with economic inequality, dissatisfaction towards the government often brews. If this dissatisfaction converges with political instability or perceived government inefficiency, it can potentially set the stage for a coup. Let's delve deeper into these factors.
Economic Inequality
High levels of economic inequality often lead to social unrest. The wider the wealth gap, the greater the dissatisfaction among economically disadvantaged groups. In turn, this dissatisfaction can undermine the government's legitimacy and spur political instability. The GINI Index, a statistical measure of income inequality, can provide valuable insights into this dynamic. For instance, countries with a high GINI Index like South Africa are often seen grappling with social unrest and political tension.
Poverty and Unemployment
Poverty and high unemployment rates can exacerbate dissatisfaction with the status quo and breed desperation—a volatile mix that can stir up civil unrest and create an environment conducive to coups. A look at the Arab Spring uprisings provides a classic example where widespread poverty and high unemployment rates, especially among the youth, led to massive protests and eventually, political upheaval.
Low Levels of Education
Education levels are inversely related to the likelihood of political instability. Countries with low levels of education often lack the social and political institutions necessary for stable democratic governance, making them more vulnerable to coups. Education not only equips citizens with better economic prospects but also promotes democratic values and political participation, serving as a buffer against political instability.
Dependence on Natural Resources
Countries heavily dependent on natural resources, such as oil or minerals, are often at a higher risk of economic instability due to the fluctuation of global commodity prices. This phenomenon, known as the "resource curse," can lead to economic distress and government corruption, both of which can catalyze a coup. For example, the over-reliance on oil revenues led to economic instability in Libya and Venezuela, triggering widespread discontent and political crises.
Socioeconomic conditions serve as a crucial barometer for a nation's political health. To prevent coups, efforts should be directed not only at fostering democratic institutions but also at addressing these underlying socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Ensuring inclusive economic growth, promoting education, reducing unemployment and diversifying economies away from over-reliance on natural resources are critical strategies to building resilience against coups.
Prevention and Monitoring
While predicting a coup can be challenging due to its complex and multifaceted nature, certain signs often precede them. Monitoring such indicators, like growing public discontent, rampant corruption, escalating political repression, economic distress or factionalism within the ruling or military circles, could potentially signal an impending coup.
Preventing coups requires strengthening democratic institutions, promoting good governance, reducing economic inequality and ensuring the military is under civilian control. An inclusive political system that offers legitimate channels for grievance redressal can also act as a bulwark against coups.
Lessons for Policymakers, Advocates, and Researchers
The global and regional implications of coups are often profound, resulting in shifts in geopolitics, regional alliances and international relations. Policymakers, advocates, and researchers can learn a lot from past coups. Building stronger democratic institutions, promoting economic stability, ensuring political inclusivity and enhancing civilian control over the military are some key strategies to insulate nations against coups.
Furthermore, the international community must work together to discourage coups. Unambiguous condemnation, targeted sanctions, and diplomatic isolation could act as deterrents, reducing the appeal of such power seizures for potential coup makers.
Understanding the dynamics of coups is vital for preventing them and fostering political stability. It's an ongoing learning process, but the knowledge gained from past coups provides invaluable insights for shaping more stable, inclusive and democratic societies.
Tracking Stability through Indicators: A Critical Tool for Risk Assessment
To effectively anticipate political instability and mitigate the risk of coups, systematic monitoring of global indices can provide valuable insights. Tools such as the Institute for Economics & Peace’s (IEP) Global Peace Index (GPI), the Positive Peace Index, the Fragile State Index (FSI), and the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) provide essential metrics for evaluating a country's stability.
Global Peace Index (GPI)
The GPI is a measure of the relative peacefulness of countries and regions around the world. It gauges the absence of violence or fear of violence using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators. These indicators range from levels of militarization and domestic or international conflict to societal safety and security.
For example, a country with a worsening GPI score, such as Libya following the 2011 Arab Spring, could indicate rising instability, potentially signaling a higher susceptibility to a coup.
Positive Peace Index
The Positive Peace Index complements the GPI by focusing on the attitudes, structures and institutions that create and sustain peaceful societies. The index's eight pillars include a well-functioning government, equitable distribution of resources and good relations with neighbors.
Let's consider the example of Costa Rica - a country consistently ranking high on the Positive Peace Index. Its high rating is largely due to its long-standing democracy, commitment to human rights and the absence of a standing army, which reduces the risk of military interference in politics, a common catalyst for coups.
Fragile States Index
The Fragile States Index evaluates countries based on twelve social, economic and political indicators that reflect state vulnerability. These indicators include security apparatus, factionalized elites and public services.
For instance, South Sudan's consistently high position on the FSI—indicating fragility—has been a reflection of its ongoing conflict and political instability since its independence in 2011.
Corruption Perception Index
The CPI ranks countries by the perceived levels of corruption in the public sector. High levels of corruption can often exacerbate political instability, potentially paving the way for a coup.
An illustrative example is the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, partially fueled by widespread corruption. Ukraine's low CPI score indicated a high perception of public sector corruption, contributing to popular discontent and political instability.
These global indices offer a holistic approach to understanding a nation's political health. By monitoring these indicators, stakeholders can identify potential flashpoints, inform preventive measures and respond more effectively to mitigating the risk of political upheavals such as coups. It underscores the importance of vigilance, evidence-based policymaking and the commitment to fostering peace and stability.
Connecting the Dots: Tracking Political Instability for Coup Prevention and Monitoring
Political instability is often a precursor to a coup d'état. It manifests in various forms—widespread protests, economic crises, rampant corruption, or factional infighting within the government or military. By tracking these indicators of political instability, we can discern patterns that might signal an impending coup and thereby inform timely interventions.
Firstly, data-driven insights from global indices offer valuable foresight. The GPI, Positive Peace Index, FSI, and CPI each provide a unique lens through which to understand different facets of a nation's political stability. They serve as early warning systems, signaling deterioration in a country's political health before it escalates into a full-blown crisis.
For instance, a sharp increase in perceived corruption (indicated by a lower CPI score) or escalating societal unrest (reflected in a worsening GPI score) might hint at brewing discontent. Such scenarios can be the tinder for a coup, particularly if other socioeconomic conditions are ripe and the government's legitimacy is under question.
Meanwhile, the Positive Peace Index identifies the structures and attitudes that underpin peaceful societies. A nation demonstrating weakening positive peace might be gradually moving towards a coup-prone environment.
Secondly, these indices not only help monitor existing instability but also aid in predicting future threats. For example, a country demonstrating a pattern of escalating fragility on the FSI is likely to be more prone to political upheaval, including potential coups.
Lastly, tracking these indices allows for strategic planning and targeted intervention by global institutions, national governments, and civil society. The information gleaned from these tools can inform diplomatic strategies, aid allocation and policy reform, helping to diffuse tension and tackle the root causes of instability before they ignite a coup.
By staying vigilant to the shifts in these indices, we can do more than simply react to political crises. Proactively tracking political instability and understanding its implications empowers us to prevent potential coups, promoting a safer and more stable global political landscape. This proactive approach can ultimately help to maintain peace, protect human rights, and uphold democratic principles worldwide.
The insights and commentary in this report are based on information from the following sources:
BBC News. (2021, February 2). Myanmar coup: What is happening and why? Retrieved July 29, 2023, from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55892489
United States Institute of Peace. (2020, August 27). Five Things to Know About Mali's Coup. Retrieved July 29, 2023, from https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/08/five-things-know-about-malis-coup
Al Jazeera. (2019, November 13). Bolivia's Evo Morales resigns: What prompted it and what's next? Retrieved July 29, 2023, from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/13/bolivias-evo-morales-resigns-what-prompted-it-and-whats-next
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2018, August 16). Zimbabwe's Coup Did Not Create Democracy From Dictatorship. Retrieved July 29, 2023, from https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/08/16/zimbabwe-s-coup-did-not-create-democracy-from-dictatorship-pub-77069
2017 Zimbabwean coup d'état. (2023, July 28). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Zimbabwean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
Middle East Institute. (2016, July 21). Unpacking Turkey's Failed Coup: Causes and Consequences. Retrieved July 29, 2023, from https://www.mei.edu/publications/unpacking-turkeys-failed-coup-causes-and-consequences
Encyclopaedia Britannica. (n.d.). Arab Spring. In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved July 29, 2023, from https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Spring
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Reuters, July 27, 2023 - Soldiers say Niger's President Bazoum's government has been removed
Reuters, July 27, 2023 - Niger coup widely condemned, countries urge return to order
AP News, July 27, 2023 - How the coup in Niger could expand the reach of Islamic extremism, and Wagner, in West Africa
AP News, July 27, 2023 - Niger’s president vows democracy will prevail after mutinous soldiers detain him and declare a coup
U.S. Department of State. (2021). Niger: 2021 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/niger/
OECD (2023). Income inequality. In OECD Data. Retrieved July 29, 2023, from https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm
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Vision of Humanity. (n.d.). Positive Peace Index Maps. Retrieved from https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/positive-peace-index/#/
Transparency International. (2022). Corruption Perceptions Index 2022: Niger. Retrieved from https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022/index/ner
The Fund for Peace. (n.d.). Fragile States Index: Country Data. Retrieved from https://fragilestatesindex.org/country-data/