Special Situation Report: Bolivia Coup Attempt – June 26, 2024
BTI data and Risk Assessment- Failed coup attempt indicates underlying tensions and the possibility of further unrest.
Introduction
The situation in Bolivia has escalated dramatically today with a failed coup attempt, marking a significant and urgent development. This brief will provide an overview of the events, contextualize the historical political instability, and analyze potential implications. The objective is to inform ARAC International stakeholders and partners of the current situation and its broader ramifications.
Current Situation
Details of the Coup Attempt
Early on June 26, 2024, armored vehicles stormed the doors of Bolivia’s government palace in La Paz, led by General Juan José Zúñiga. This action was part of an apparent coup attempt against President Luis Arce. President Arce responded swiftly by calling for public mobilization and appointing new military commanders who ordered the troops to stand down. The coup attempt, marked by the storming of the presidential palace and significant military presence in Plaza Murillo, ended with the withdrawal of troops following Arce's call for public support and the arrest of General Zúñiga(AP News)(Reuters).
General Zúñiga, the orchestrator of the coup, claimed that President Arce had instructed him to carry out the storming as a political maneuver to boost his popularity. However, this assertion was firmly denied by Justice Minister Iván Lima, who emphasized that Zúñiga's claims were fabrications intended to justify his actions. The Bolivian government has initiated a criminal investigation against Zúñiga, aiming for a maximum sentence of 15 to 20 years in prison for attacking democracy and the Constitution(AP News).
Key Players and Responses
President Luis Arce:
President Arce took a resolute stance against the coup attempt, urging the public to mobilize in defense of democracy. He swiftly appointed new military commanders and maintained that the coup plotters were staining the military's honor. Arce’s immediate actions and public address emphasized his commitment to preserving democratic order (Reuters)(AP News).
General Juan José Zúñiga:
General Zúñiga led the coup attempt, claiming he was acting to restore democracy and release political prisoners. Despite his claims of acting under Arce’s orders, he was arrested and now faces severe legal repercussions. His justification for the coup has been widely discredited by government officials(BBC).
International and Domestic Reactions:
The coup attempt has drawn significant international condemnation. Regional leaders, including those from Venezuela and Colombia, quickly denounced the events and expressed support for democracy in Bolivia. Former President Evo Morales also condemned the coup attempt, calling for criminal charges against Zúñiga and his supporters. Domestically, pro-democracy demonstrators rallied in support of President Arce, reflecting a strong public rejection of the coup (AP News).
Historical Context
Political Background
Bolivia's political history has been marred by instability and coups. Since its independence in 1825, the country has experienced numerous coups, with the last military coup occurring in 1980. The return to democratic rule in 1982 has been challenged by deep-seated issues of poverty, social unrest, and political divisions. The election of Evo Morales in 2005 brought a shift towards empowering the poor and indigenous populations, yet his presidency ended in controversy and allegations of electoral fraud, leading to his resignation and exile in 2019(World Factbook).
BTI Data and Historical Performance and Trend Analysis
The Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) highlights Bolivia's fluctuating performance in political and economic transformation. Key indicators show persistent issues in governance and rule of law, despite improvements in political participation and market organization. The country has maintained relatively stable control over its territory and a high acceptance of state identity. However, challenges remain in ensuring free and fair elections, effective governance, and judicial independence(BTI Analysis Report).
The chart above illustrates Bolivia's economic status as measured by BTI from 2006 to 2024. The data shows a fluctuating trend in the economic status over the two decades. Initially, there is a notable dip from 5.39 in 2006 to 5.11 in 2008, followed by a gradual recovery, reaching a peak of 5.89 in 2014. This peak indicates a period of economic improvement and stability. However, post-2014, the economic status begins to decline, with significant drops observed from 2018 onwards, plummeting to a low of 5.07 by 2024. This downward trend highlights increasing economic challenges and instability in recent years, reflecting issues such as governance difficulties, political instability, and external economic pressures impacting Bolivia's economic performance.
Trend Analysis of Bolivia's BTI Trends and Geopolitical Implications
The BTI trend analysis chart provides an overview of Bolivia's performance over time across three key dimensions: democracy, governance, and economy, as per the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI). Each line represents the trend measures for these dimensions from 2008 to 2024. Here's a detailed discussion of the trends and their implications for Bolivia's current situation and future geopolitical security:
1. Trend Measures:
Trend Democracy (Blue Line):
The democracy trend shows significant fluctuations over the years. There was a noticeable improvement from 2008 to 2012, reaching a peak. However, post-2012, the trend demonstrates a decline, with a steep drop around 2020, recovering slightly by 2022, but declining again towards 2024.
Trend Governance (Orange Line):
Governance also shows a similar upward trend from 2008 to 2012, reaching its highest point. Post-2012, governance trends decline, with slight fluctuations but an overall downward trajectory, indicating deteriorating governance quality.
Trend Economy (Green Line):
The economic trend follows an upward trajectory until 2010, stabilizing briefly around 2012. However, like the other dimensions, the economic trend declines significantly after 2012, with some recovery in 2022, but again showing a downward trend towards 2024.
2. Current Situation Analysis:
Political Stability:
The decline in the democracy trend aligns with recent political instability, including the coup attempt in 2024. This instability reflects underlying issues in political participation, rule of law, and democratic institutions.
Governance Challenges:
The downward trend in governance suggests ongoing issues with policy implementation, corruption, and effective management. This aligns with the current challenges faced by Bolivia, as reflected in recent political events and governance crises.
Economic Performance:
The economic trend highlights Bolivia's struggles with maintaining consistent economic growth. The fluctuations reflect the impact of political instability, inadequate governance, and external economic pressures on Bolivia’s economy.
3. Future Geopolitical Security:
Implications of Declining Trends:
The decline across all three dimensions—democracy, governance, and economy—poses significant risks to Bolivia's future geopolitical security. Persistent instability can lead to increased internal conflicts, weakened state institutions, and socio-economic challenges.
Strategic Recommendations:
Strengthening Democratic Institutions:
Bolstering democratic processes and ensuring fair elections can help restore political stability. Efforts should be made to increase political participation and strengthen the rule of law.
Improving Governance:
Addressing corruption, enhancing transparency, and improving policy implementation are critical. Investing in capacity building for public officials and institutions can enhance governance quality.
Economic Reforms:
Implementing robust economic policies to stabilize the currency, protect property rights, and promote market competition is essential. Efforts should focus on diversifying the economy and improving socio-economic development.
Impact on Human Development and Governance
The coup attempt could have significant implications for Bolivia's Human Development Index (HDI) and governance. Political instability may undermine economic growth and social development, exacerbating existing challenges in poverty and inequality. The immediate impact includes heightened uncertainty and potential disruptions in governance, which could affect public services and economic stability.
Risk Assessment
The failed coup attempt indicates underlying tensions and the possibility of further unrest. The risks of subsequent coup attempts or political upheavals remain, particularly as Bolivia approaches the 2025 elections. The effectiveness of President Arce's governance measures and the public’s response to calls for mobilization will be critical in mitigating these threats.
Conclusion
Today's failed coup attempt in Bolivia underscores the country's ongoing political volatility. The swift actions by President Arce and the subsequent arrest of General Zúñiga highlight the government's commitment to maintaining democratic order. However, the event also reveals deep-seated tensions that could pose future risks to stability.
The trend analysis indicates significant challenges in Bolivia's political, governance, and economic dimensions. The current situation, marked by political instability and governance issues, reflects these trends. Addressing these challenges through strategic reforms and strengthening institutional frameworks is crucial for improving Bolivia's future geopolitical security and ensuring sustainable development.
By closely monitoring these trends and implementing the recommended strategies, Bolivia can work towards a more stable and secure future, mitigating the risks associated with the current downward trajectories in democracy, governance, and economic performance.
ARAC International partners operating in the local region should remain vigilant and closely monitor the situation, considering both immediate and long-term implications for Bolivia and the broader region. The potential for further political unrest and its impact on governance and socio-economic conditions warrant continuous observation and preparedness for swift response to any developments.
Sources:
AP News: Bolivian general arrested after apparent failed coup attempt as government faces new crisis
Reuters: Bolivia coup attempt fails after military assault on presidential palace | Reuters
MNS Consulting | BTI Analysis Report for Bolivia (2006-2024)
Bertelsmann Transformation Index: BTI Source Datasets