CARVER Risk Assessment: Unpacking the Crisis in Sudan (February 2024)

Risk Assessment Report on the Sudan Crisis

ARAC Feb-2024 Risk Assessment Report on the Sudan Crisis

Photo source: UN News

Overview  Report

In the shadow of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, a devastating humanitarian crisis unfolds, marked by a rapid displacement surge, healthcare collapse, and ethnic violence. The crisis, deepened by historical grievances and recent clashes, has pushed millions into displacement, with healthcare systems teetering on the brink. The international community's response, led by organizations like MSF, is challenged by security risks and funding deficits. Predictively, without a concerted global effort toward peace and substantial aid, the crisis may worsen, threatening regional stability and further straining humanitarian resources.

Key Takeaways

Main points from reports by UN News and MSF:

• The conflict has triggered the world's fastest-growing displacement crisis, with over 5.4 million people displaced internally and nearly 7.8 million, including those who fled abroad.

• Health crises are escalating with over 10,000 cholera cases, 5,000 measles cases, 8,000 dengue cases, and 1.2 million clinical malaria cases reported due to a collapsing healthcare system.

• Ethnic violence, particularly against the Masalit community in Darfur, is intensifying with severe human rights violations including sexual violence, recruitment of child soldiers, and indiscriminate attacks.

• MSF's response includes medical and humanitarian assistance in Sudan and neighboring countries, addressing malnutrition, treating war wounds, and supporting refugees and displaced populations.

• The humanitarian response is hindered by insecurity, looting, and a funding shortfall, with the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for Sudan only 3.5% funded as of February 2024.

Risks and Threats in Sudan

The situation in Sudan presents several risks and threats, including:

• Widespread displacement leading to humanitarian crises

• Escalating ethnic violence and targeting of communities

• Collapsing healthcare systems with outbreaks of diseases

• Human rights violations, including sexual violence and child recruitment

• Insecurity and challenges in delivering humanitarian aid

• Funding shortfalls impacting relief efforts

• Regional destabilization due to the spillover of conflict

• Risk of prolonged conflict without a political solution

How we conducted this risk assessment:

For this assessment, the Peacekeeper Insights’ CARVER Risk Advisor served as an invaluable tool for extracting and analyzing insights from reports relevant to the ongoing crisis in Sudan, demonstrating its utility in strategic risk assessment within complex geopolitical situations. The CARVER Risk Advisor began with examining detailed reports on Sudan, sourced from credible and verified entities such as UN News and Médicins Sans Frontières (MSF). These reports provided a comprehensive overview of the multifaceted challenges faced by the country, including a humanitarian crisis, displacement, healthcare collapse, security risks for aid organizations, and the potential for the crisis to worsen.

About the assessment report and the CARVER Risk Advisor Tool

The CARVER Risk Advisor is an innovative application powered by the OpenAI platform, developed, trained, and fine-tuned by ARAC International. This cutting-edge tool is part of ARAC International's Peacekeeper Insights program, which focuses on enhancing global security risk management through the deployment of advanced technology solutions. The CARVER Risk Advisor is a testament to our commitment to leveraging artificial intelligence to support and streamline decision-making processes in security risk assessments.

Training data for the CARVER Risk Advisor encompassed various sources, including security assessments, case studies, expert analyses, and historical data on security incidents globally. Under the guidance of ARAC International, the system was meticulously trained to analyze complex security scenarios, understand the nuances of global threats, and deliver actionable insights. The training process was designed to ensure the application's accuracy, relevance, and ability to adapt to evolving security challenges.

While the CARVER Risk Advisor represents a significant advancement in the field of security risk assessment, it is essential to recognize the inherent limitations of such automated platforms. The precision and relevance of the tool's outputs heavily depend on the quality and context of the data fed into the system. For this reason, the assessments and analyses generated by the CARVER Risk Advisor must be viewed as part of a larger mosaic of decision-making inputs, not as definitive solutions in isolation. For the assessment concerning the situation in Sudan, we provided a wealth of contextual data derived from reliable and verified sources.

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