Ethiopia’s Amhara Conflict: A Deepening Crisis in the Heart of East Africa
Commentary: Fano Insurgency & Ethnic Strife in Ethiopia
Commentary and analysis by M. Nuri Shakoor, SRMP-C
The Human Toll: Displacement, Fear, and Survival
In the Amhara region, thousands of civilians have been uprooted from their homes, caught in the crossfire between government forces and the Fano insurgents. Widespread displacement is a tragic reality, as entire communities are forced to flee amid escalating violence. Government forces have launched drone strikes, and eyewitnesses have reported civilian casualties as a result of these airstrikes (1).
Schools, hospitals, and markets — key elements of daily life — are shut down, further isolating affected populations. In areas like West Gojam and South Gondar, where clashes are most intense, local services have ceased to function. As a result, the region has seen economic and humanitarian collapse, with agricultural production halted and trade routes disrupted (2). The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has documented extrajudicial killings and mass arrests in the region, further heightening insecurity (2).
The civilians in Amhara are left defenseless, relying on militias like the Fano for protection against both government forces and ethnic Oromo attacks. For many Amhara civilians, the state’s disbandment of the regional Amhara Special Forces (ASF) is seen as abandoning their protection, leaving them vulnerable to violence from all sides (1).
A Conflict Rooted in Grievances
The roots of this conflict, according to a detailed intelligence report from Global-Security Strategic Communications (GSC), stretch back decades, with territorial disputes and ethnic marginalization at the core of Amhara’s grievances (3). The Fano militia, initially a volunteer community defense group, gained momentum after Ethiopia’s 2020–2022 Tigray War, when they sided with the federal government to reclaim disputed territories in Tigray. These include Welkait and Raya — lands claimed by both Amhara and Tigray, but under TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) control since the 1990s (1)(4).
What started as a movement to defend Amhara’s borders escalated into full-blown insurgency by mid-2023. Fano fighters, supported by parts of the Amhara populace who feel abandoned by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, have taken up arms against federal forces. Their grievances are compounded by what they perceive as the government’s preferential treatment of the Oromo region and the sidelining of Amhara interests in national politics (2).
The Ethiopian government’s 2022 peace agreement with the TPLF, which excluded Amhara voices, ignited widespread dissatisfaction. The disbandment of regional militias like the Amhara Special Forces (ASF), part of a broader federal effort to demilitarize the regions, was the tipping point (1). The response was swift and violent: protests, roadblocks, and a guerrilla war that has engulfed the region.
Economic Catastrophe in the Making
In the style of Paul Krugman, let’s now examine the economic ramifications of this conflict. Ethiopia’s economy, already weakened by years of war and political instability, faces further deterioration as the Amhara conflict rages on. Agriculture, the backbone of the region’s economy, has been hit hardest. Fields lie fallow as farmers flee their homes, unable to harvest crops. Markets are disrupted, with essential supply routes cut off due to the violence. According to an internal GSC Situation Report, the violence has severely disrupted both agricultural production and trade, leading to widespread economic instability (3).
Compounding this, Ethiopia’s national debt continues to balloon, driven by military spending and declining export revenues. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Ethiopia’s debt-to-GDP ratio could surpass 60% by the end of 2024, with foreign investors increasingly wary of instability (6). The economic downturn is exacerbating poverty, with food prices rising, jobs disappearing, and inflation running at over 35%.
The federal government’s response has been to double down on military efforts, diverting scarce resources from development projects and basic services. The Ethiopian Birr has plummeted in value, foreign reserves are dwindling, and unemployment is rising — particularly among the youth, many of whom are now drawn into the insurgency as fighters (2).
Political Quagmire and Ethnic Tensions
At the heart of Ethiopia’s problems is its system of ethnic federalism, which divides the country into regions based largely on ethnic identity. What was intended as a way to provide autonomy and prevent ethnic conflict has instead deepened divisions. Amhara, Tigray, and Oromo — the three most powerful ethnic groups — are now locked in a bitter struggle over land, political power, and control of the capital, Addis Ababa (1)(2).
The Fano insurgency, although fragmented, has tapped into deep nationalist sentiments among the Amhara people. Many see the militia as the last line of defense against perceived encroachment by the Oromo and Tigrayan groups. The situation is further complicated by Abiy Ahmed’s Oromo roots, which fuel suspicions among Amhara nationalists that the prime minister is more concerned with advancing Oromo interests than safeguarding Ethiopia’s unity (2).
In the midst of this turmoil, the federal government has found itself increasingly isolated. Once hailed as a reformer, Abiy’s attempts to centralize power have alienated key regional actors. His crackdown on the Fano insurgency, while tactically successful in reclaiming urban centers, has done little to resolve the underlying grievances that fuel the conflict.
The Broader Regional Impact
Beyond Ethiopia’s borders, the Amhara conflict has the potential to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. Ethiopia shares a fragile frontier with Sudan, where political upheaval and civil war have already created a humanitarian crisis. If the Amhara insurgency spreads further, it could ignite tensions in neighboring countries, particularly as arms flow across porous borders. The involvement of Eritrean forces in past conflicts in the region also raises concerns that the fighting could take on a regional dimension (1)(2).
Sudan’s involvement in the Amhara-Tigray border dispute over Welkait adds another layer of complexity. Historically, this area has been a flashpoint, with both Amhara and Tigrayan forces seeking control over the fertile land. The fear of a proxy war, involving Eritrea and Sudan, is no longer far-fetched (2).
The African Union, based in Addis Ababa, has been largely silent on the Amhara conflict, though regional leaders are beginning to express concern. Without urgent international mediation, the conflict could spiral into a larger, more protracted war.
The Path to Peace: A Call for Dialogue
For the people of Amhara, peace is the only hope. But peace in Ethiopia will not come through military might alone. True peace requires addressing the root causes of conflict: historical grievances, ethnic divisions, and political exclusion (4). The international community must step in, not with force, but with diplomacy.
Ethiopia needs a comprehensive peace process that includes all major ethnic groups — Amhara, Tigray, Oromo — and addresses their competing claims. The African Union and Western powers, including the United States and the European Union, must pressure the Ethiopian government to engage in dialogue with Fano insurgents and other regional actors (2). This must include revisiting the status of disputed territories like Welkait and Raya, and developing a framework for shared governance that respects ethnic diversity while fostering national unity.
Conclusion: Toward a United Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s future hangs in the balance. The Amhara conflict is not just a local issue; it is a reflection of the deeper fissures in the country’s political and social fabric. The path forward will require courage — both from Ethiopia’s leaders and the international community — to prioritize peace and reconciliation over power and control.
The world must not turn a blind eye to the unfolding crisis in Ethiopia. A nation once seen as a pillar of stability in the Horn of Africa now stands at a crossroads. The decisions made in the coming months will determine whether it descends into further chaos or finds a way toward a more just and peaceful future.
Sources:
GSC Editor (2024). Mapping the conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara region and the Fano Insurgency: Internal OSINT Report. Global-Security Strategic Communications (GSC).
Tadesse, A. (2023, September 29). A reflection on the conflict in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/reflection-conflict-amhara-region-ethiopia
Ethiopian Peace Observatory. (2024, August 20). Amhara conflict: Fano insurgency. https://epo.acleddata.com/amhara-conflict-fano-insurgency
Crisis Group. (2023, November 16). Ethiopia’s ominous new war in Amhara. International Crisis Group. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/b194-ethiopias-ominous-new-war-amhara
MNS Consulting. (2024). Peacekeeper Insight analytic report: Fano and Amhara situation. Peacekeeper Insight OSINT Situation Report.
International Monetary Fund. (n.d.). Ethiopia and the IMF. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ETH